WTPQ20 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER STS 1116 SONCA (1116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 42N 165E
MOVE ENE 40KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH =
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 22 - Typhoon Sonca
WTPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (SONCA) WARNING NR 022
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 39.9N 155.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 32 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.9N 155.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 42.0N 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 43.1N 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 40.4N 157.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 32 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
VERIFIES THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS (XTT) IS WELL
UNDERWAY. THE CLOUD SHIELD IS EXPANDING AS TS 19W MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC. TS 19W WILL COMPLETE
XTT AND TRANSITION INTO A HIGH-GALE TO STORM FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 18W (ROKE)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (SONCA) WARNING NR 022
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 39.9N 155.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 32 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.9N 155.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 42.0N 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 43.1N 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 40.4N 157.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 32 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
VERIFIES THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS (XTT) IS WELL
UNDERWAY. THE CLOUD SHIELD IS EXPANDING AS TS 19W MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC. TS 19W WILL COMPLETE
XTT AND TRANSITION INTO A HIGH-GALE TO STORM FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 18W (ROKE)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 19 - Typhoon Sonca
WTPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (SONCA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 36.0N 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.0N 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 39.4N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 42.0N 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 43.8N 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 36.9N 147.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
CONVECTION REMAINS SOLID WITH SLIGHT DEFORMATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A SMALL 10-NM IRREGULAR EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES. TY 19W HAS BEGUN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD, BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 36. IT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET KNOWN MODEL TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN DURING ET.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
18W (ROKE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (SONCA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 36.0N 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.0N 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 39.4N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 42.0N 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 43.8N 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 36.9N 147.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
CONVECTION REMAINS SOLID WITH SLIGHT DEFORMATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A SMALL 10-NM IRREGULAR EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES. TY 19W HAS BEGUN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD, BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 36. IT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET KNOWN MODEL TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN DURING ET.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
18W (ROKE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Sunday, September 11, 2011
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 01 - Tropical Depression 18W
WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 21.2N 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.7N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.2N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.7N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.3N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.9N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 27.4N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 30.1N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 135.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 102021Z SEP 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 102030 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 21.2N 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.7N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.2N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.7N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.3N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.9N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 27.4N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 30.1N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 135.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 102021Z SEP 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 102030 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert - Tropical Depression 27
WTPN21 PGTW 102030 COR
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091451Z SEP 11//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 091500)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.1N 139.7E TO 23.0N 132.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 102000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.7N 137.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 112030Z.
//
9111090718 172N1495E 15
9111090800 175N1485E 15
9111090806 180N1476E 15
9111090812 183N1467E 15
9111090818 185N1458E 15
9111090900 187N1451E 15
9111090906 188N1444E 20
9111090912 189N1436E 20
9111090918 191N1429E 20
9111091000 194N1415E 20
9111091006 198N1403E 20
9111091012 203N1391E 15
9111091018 207N1379E 20
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091451Z SEP 11//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 091500)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.1N 139.7E TO 23.0N 132.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 102000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.7N 137.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 112030Z.
//
9111090718 172N1495E 15
9111090800 175N1485E 15
9111090806 180N1476E 15
9111090812 183N1467E 15
9111090818 185N1458E 15
9111090900 187N1451E 15
9111090906 188N1444E 20
9111090912 189N1436E 20
9111090918 191N1429E 20
9111091000 194N1415E 20
9111091006 198N1403E 20
9111091012 203N1391E 15
9111091018 207N1379E 20
Saturday, September 10, 2011
JMA - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 100000 - Tropical Storm Kulap
WTPQ20 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1114 KULAP (1114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 31N 127E
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1010HPA =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1114 KULAP (1114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 31N 127E
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1010HPA =
Friday, September 9, 2011
JMA - Tropical Cyclone Warning 081800 - Tropical Depression 27
WWJP25 RJTD 081800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 986 HPA
AT 58N 142E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 45N 148E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 42N 180E 37N 158E 45N 148E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 19N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 36N 169E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1114 KULAP (1114) 1002 HPA AT 27.1N 131.4E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING AND SUMMARY 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 986 HPA
AT 58N 142E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 45N 148E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 42N 180E 37N 158E 45N 148E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 19N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 36N 169E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1114 KULAP (1114) 1002 HPA AT 27.1N 131.4E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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