JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 07 - Tropical Storm Noru

WTPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NORU) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 32.5N 149.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 32.5N 149.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 35.4N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 38.2N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 20 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 42.1N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 25 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 47.0N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
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REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 33.2N 149.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS BECOMING FRAGMENTED AND DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER,
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY (MI) AND SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED
ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON A 041616Z SSMIS (MI) WITH POOR
CONFIFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DERIVED FROM DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30-40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
SYSTEM AND IS INHIBITING OUTFLOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 16W IS BEING STEERED BY A HIGH-AMPLITUDE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS
TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONCURRENTLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. TS NORU WILL BECOME A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 48.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFS TO
THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE UP TO TAU 36. THIS TRACK FORECAST
IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z,
051500Z AND 052100Z. //