WTPQ20 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER STS 1116 SONCA (1116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 42N 165E
MOVE ENE 40KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH =
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 22 - Typhoon Sonca
WTPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (SONCA) WARNING NR 022
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 39.9N 155.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 32 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.9N 155.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 42.0N 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 43.1N 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 40.4N 157.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 32 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
VERIFIES THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS (XTT) IS WELL
UNDERWAY. THE CLOUD SHIELD IS EXPANDING AS TS 19W MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC. TS 19W WILL COMPLETE
XTT AND TRANSITION INTO A HIGH-GALE TO STORM FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 18W (ROKE)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (SONCA) WARNING NR 022
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 39.9N 155.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 32 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.9N 155.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 42.0N 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 43.1N 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 40.4N 157.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 32 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
VERIFIES THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS (XTT) IS WELL
UNDERWAY. THE CLOUD SHIELD IS EXPANDING AS TS 19W MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC. TS 19W WILL COMPLETE
XTT AND TRANSITION INTO A HIGH-GALE TO STORM FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 18W (ROKE)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 19 - Typhoon Sonca
WTPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (SONCA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 36.0N 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.0N 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 39.4N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 42.0N 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 43.8N 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 36.9N 147.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
CONVECTION REMAINS SOLID WITH SLIGHT DEFORMATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A SMALL 10-NM IRREGULAR EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES. TY 19W HAS BEGUN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD, BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 36. IT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET KNOWN MODEL TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN DURING ET.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
18W (ROKE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (SONCA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 36.0N 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.0N 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 39.4N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 42.0N 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 43.8N 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 36.9N 147.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
CONVECTION REMAINS SOLID WITH SLIGHT DEFORMATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A SMALL 10-NM IRREGULAR EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES. TY 19W HAS BEGUN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD, BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 36. IT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET KNOWN MODEL TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN DURING ET.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
18W (ROKE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Sunday, September 11, 2011
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 01 - Tropical Depression 18W
WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 21.2N 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.7N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.2N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.7N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.3N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.9N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 27.4N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 30.1N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 135.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 102021Z SEP 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 102030 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 21.2N 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.7N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.2N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.7N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.3N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.9N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 27.4N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 30.1N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 135.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 102021Z SEP 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 102030 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert - Tropical Depression 27
WTPN21 PGTW 102030 COR
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091451Z SEP 11//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 091500)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.1N 139.7E TO 23.0N 132.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 102000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.7N 137.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 112030Z.
//
9111090718 172N1495E 15
9111090800 175N1485E 15
9111090806 180N1476E 15
9111090812 183N1467E 15
9111090818 185N1458E 15
9111090900 187N1451E 15
9111090906 188N1444E 20
9111090912 189N1436E 20
9111090918 191N1429E 20
9111091000 194N1415E 20
9111091006 198N1403E 20
9111091012 203N1391E 15
9111091018 207N1379E 20
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091451Z SEP 11//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 091500)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.1N 139.7E TO 23.0N 132.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 102000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.7N 137.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 112030Z.
//
9111090718 172N1495E 15
9111090800 175N1485E 15
9111090806 180N1476E 15
9111090812 183N1467E 15
9111090818 185N1458E 15
9111090900 187N1451E 15
9111090906 188N1444E 20
9111090912 189N1436E 20
9111090918 191N1429E 20
9111091000 194N1415E 20
9111091006 198N1403E 20
9111091012 203N1391E 15
9111091018 207N1379E 20
Saturday, September 10, 2011
JMA - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 100000 - Tropical Storm Kulap
WTPQ20 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1114 KULAP (1114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 31N 127E
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1010HPA =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1114 KULAP (1114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 31N 127E
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1010HPA =
Friday, September 9, 2011
JMA - Tropical Cyclone Warning 081800 - Tropical Depression 27
WWJP25 RJTD 081800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 986 HPA
AT 58N 142E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 45N 148E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 42N 180E 37N 158E 45N 148E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 19N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 36N 169E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1114 KULAP (1114) 1002 HPA AT 27.1N 131.4E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING AND SUMMARY 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 986 HPA
AT 58N 142E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 45N 148E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 42N 180E 37N 158E 45N 148E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 19N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 36N 169E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1114 KULAP (1114) 1002 HPA AT 27.1N 131.4E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Warning 080130 - Tropical Depression
ABPW10 PGTW 080130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/080130Z-080600ZSEP2011//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071951ZSEP2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TS 16W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR
32.5N 149.6E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN HAS
DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) AT 071800Z, TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP) WAS LOCATED NEAR
23.8N 135.2E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR
BASE, OKINAWA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 072100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.7N 149.2E, 520
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ANIMATED INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
IMPROVING OUTFLOW OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION. A 07/2212Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATES SOME CURVED INFLOW INTO THE LLCC
WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS
CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW WITH SOME WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOT) WESTERLIES
FLOWING INTO A CLEARLY DEFINED, ELONGATED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES DIRECTLY BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 1.A.(1) AND
ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/080130Z-080600ZSEP2011//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071951ZSEP2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TS 16W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR
32.5N 149.6E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN HAS
DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) AT 071800Z, TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP) WAS LOCATED NEAR
23.8N 135.2E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR
BASE, OKINAWA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 072100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.7N 149.2E, 520
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ANIMATED INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
IMPROVING OUTFLOW OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION. A 07/2212Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATES SOME CURVED INFLOW INTO THE LLCC
WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS
CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW WITH SOME WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOT) WESTERLIES
FLOWING INTO A CLEARLY DEFINED, ELONGATED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES DIRECTLY BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 1.A.(1) AND
ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 07 - Tropical Storm Kulap
WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (KULAP) WARNING NR 007
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 17W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 27.2N 131.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2N 131.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.8N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 31.6N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 130.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS INTACT BUT
FULLY EXPOSED AND FURTHER DETACHED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION, NOW BY
OVER 220 NM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
081231Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE EASTERN RIM OF
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 10 DEGREES
SOUTHEAST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF JAPAN.
TD 17W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER
WATER BY TAU 36 AS THE VWS REMAINS STRONG AND ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFDN SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z,
090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (KULAP) WARNING NR 007
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 17W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 27.2N 131.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2N 131.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.8N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 31.6N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 130.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS INTACT BUT
FULLY EXPOSED AND FURTHER DETACHED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION, NOW BY
OVER 220 NM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
081231Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE EASTERN RIM OF
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 10 DEGREES
SOUTHEAST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF JAPAN.
TD 17W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER
WATER BY TAU 36 AS THE VWS REMAINS STRONG AND ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFDN SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z,
090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
Thursday, September 8, 2011
PAGASA - Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO (FINAL) - Tropical Storm "NONOY" (KULAP)
Tropical Storm "NONOY" | |||||||||||||||
Tropical Cyclone Archive | Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping | |||||||||||||||
PAGASA Track as of 2 p.m., 08 September 2011 ) | Satellite Picture at 5 p.m., 08 September 2011 ) | ||||||||||||||
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Tropical Cyclone Archive | Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping | |||||||||||||||
PAGASA - Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE - Tropical Storm "NONOY" (KULAP)
Original source: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml, recovered at: 2011-09-08 0245Z
Tropical Storm "NONOY" | |||||||||||||||
Tropical Cyclone Archive | Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping | |||||||||||||||
PAGASA Track as of 8 a.m., 08 September 2011 ) | Satellite Picture at 10 a.m., 08 September 2011 ) | ||||||||||||||
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Tropical Cyclone Archive | Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping | |||||||||||||||
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 05 - Tropical Storm Kulap
WTPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 25.5N 133.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 133.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 27.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.6N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 29.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 31.4N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 35.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 39.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 133.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KULAP) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 130 NM TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 080115Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING STRONG 30- TO
40- KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED DIRECTLY BENEATH A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, A
080443 AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DRY AIR WRAPPING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. TS 17W IS CURRENLTY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHEN AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW TS
17W TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TS 17W SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITYAND THEN BY TAU 48 BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT IN THE TURN POLEWARD. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS A DEEPER TROUGH TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF, GFS, WBAR, AND JGSM. HOWEVER, TS 17W COULD
POTENTIALLY WEAKEN BELOW 25 KNOTS BEFORE COMPLETING ETT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 25.5N 133.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 133.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 27.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.6N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 29.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 31.4N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 35.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 39.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 133.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KULAP) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 130 NM TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 080115Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING STRONG 30- TO
40- KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED DIRECTLY BENEATH A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, A
080443 AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DRY AIR WRAPPING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. TS 17W IS CURRENLTY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHEN AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW TS
17W TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TS 17W SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITYAND THEN BY TAU 48 BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT IN THE TURN POLEWARD. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS A DEEPER TROUGH TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF, GFS, WBAR, AND JGSM. HOWEVER, TS 17W COULD
POTENTIALLY WEAKEN BELOW 25 KNOTS BEFORE COMPLETING ETT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 03 - Tropical Storm Kulap
WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 23.8N 135.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 135.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.4N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.6N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 29.3N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 32.9N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 36.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 41.6N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 134.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
(IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. IR IMAGERY ALSO
REVEALS SLIGHTLY COOLER CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A
07/1830 TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS
TRMM IMAGE ALSO INDICATES DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM, POTENTIALLY INHIBITING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. A 07/1252Z
PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES TS 17W HAS REMAINED SMALL IN SIZE,
WITH 25-KNOT WIND RADII LESS THAN 120 NM FROM THE CENTER. INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY,
AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH A DECREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE 07/1200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS 17W IS LOCATED BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TS KULAP'S STEERING INFLUENCE HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED FROM THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE
RECENT TURNING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS NEW FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
PRIMARILY BASED ON THE LOWER THAN EXPECTED INITIAL INTENSITY OF 17W
AND THE SUBSEQUENT STEERING REGIME BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHALLOWER
DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM. TS 17W IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD WEAKEN
THE WESTERN EXTENT, ALLOWING TS 17W TO TRACK POLEWARD, RECURVE OVER
THE KOREAN PENINSULA, AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. WITH THE CURRENTLY
EXPOSED LLCC, STEADY INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND
NORTHWARD TRACK INTO A REGION OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 17W WILL STRUGGLE TO APPROACH
TYPHOON STRENGTH. BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96, TS 17W IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT, WITH EGRR, NOGAPS, AND GFDN
KEEPING 17W ON A STRAIGHT-RUNNING TRACK TOWARD THE WEST AND
DISSIPATING IN EASTERN CHINA. GFS, ECMWF, JGSM, AND WBAR
RECURVE 17W ACROSS THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO JGSM, ECMWF, AND GFS, WHICH DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND
082100Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 23.8N 135.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 135.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.4N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.6N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 29.3N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 32.9N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 36.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 41.6N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 134.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
(IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. IR IMAGERY ALSO
REVEALS SLIGHTLY COOLER CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A
07/1830 TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS
TRMM IMAGE ALSO INDICATES DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM, POTENTIALLY INHIBITING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. A 07/1252Z
PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES TS 17W HAS REMAINED SMALL IN SIZE,
WITH 25-KNOT WIND RADII LESS THAN 120 NM FROM THE CENTER. INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY,
AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH A DECREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE 07/1200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS 17W IS LOCATED BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TS KULAP'S STEERING INFLUENCE HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED FROM THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE
RECENT TURNING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS NEW FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
PRIMARILY BASED ON THE LOWER THAN EXPECTED INITIAL INTENSITY OF 17W
AND THE SUBSEQUENT STEERING REGIME BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHALLOWER
DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM. TS 17W IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD WEAKEN
THE WESTERN EXTENT, ALLOWING TS 17W TO TRACK POLEWARD, RECURVE OVER
THE KOREAN PENINSULA, AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. WITH THE CURRENTLY
EXPOSED LLCC, STEADY INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND
NORTHWARD TRACK INTO A REGION OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 17W WILL STRUGGLE TO APPROACH
TYPHOON STRENGTH. BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96, TS 17W IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT, WITH EGRR, NOGAPS, AND GFDN
KEEPING 17W ON A STRAIGHT-RUNNING TRACK TOWARD THE WEST AND
DISSIPATING IN EASTERN CHINA. GFS, ECMWF, JGSM, AND WBAR
RECURVE 17W ACROSS THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO JGSM, ECMWF, AND GFS, WHICH DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND
082100Z.//
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
JMA - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 70300 - Tropical Storm Kulap
WTPQ20 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1114 KULAP (1114) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 21.5N 135.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 080300UTC 23.3N 135.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1114 KULAP (1114) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 21.5N 135.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 080300UTC 23.3N 135.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 01 - Tropical Storm Kulap
WTPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 21.8N 135.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 135.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 22.8N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.8N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.5N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 25.2N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 26.5N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.2N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 27.4N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 135.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
A SMALL, DENSE, AND TIGHTLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM UNDERGOING RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. A 062356Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE VERIFIES THE SMALL SIZE
OF THE SYSTEM, DEPICTING WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SYSTEM DIAMETER IS ESTIMATED AT
200 NM. A 37GHZ 071058Z TRMM IMAGE CAPTURES THE TIGHT CONSOLIDATION
OF THE SYSTEM, SHOWING TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. THE SCATTERING FREQUENCIES ALSO CAPTURE THE INTENSITY AND
DEPTH OF CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, AND DECREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO IMPROVING. RECENT IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE POLEWARD CHANNEL, WHICH WILL
LIKELY BY SHORT-LIVED, THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THE 070000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD EXHAUST OVER THE LLCC, AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOPS REVEAL INCREASING SATURATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING THE STORM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE 28 TO 29 DEGREES. THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS MAKING DVORAK ASSESSMENTS LESS REPRESENTATIVE
OF THE TRUE INTENSITY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON
THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM IMAGE AND A
PGTW DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS. THE STEERING FORCE FOR TS 17W IS
AN ANTICYCLONE EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS PROVIDING A GENTLE NUDGE POLEWARD. A MAJOR
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC THAT WILL
AFFECT THE TRACK OF TS 17W IS TAKING PLACE. A DEEP TROUGH MOVING
OVER HONSHU IS BREAKING DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND AS IT DOES SO, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST RAPIDLY, BUILDING OVER
THE BONIN ISLANDS AND THE RYUKUS. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TS 17W
WILL LEAVE THE INFLUENCE OF THE NER AND GET PICKED UP BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, MAKING A SHARP TURN TO THE WEST. DUE TO THE SMALL
SIZE AND RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TS 17W, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CAUGHT
UP WITH THE SYSTEM YET. THE JTWC FORECAST CALLS FOR INITIAL
INTENSIFICATION AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE ALONG THE
POLEWARD TRACK, AND THEN, IN ANTICIPATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ANNULAR STORM, A STABLE RATE ALONG THE WESTWARD LEG. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 070151Z SEP 11 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 070200 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z,
072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 21.8N 135.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 135.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 22.8N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.8N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.5N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 25.2N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 26.5N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.2N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 27.4N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 135.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
A SMALL, DENSE, AND TIGHTLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM UNDERGOING RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. A 062356Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE VERIFIES THE SMALL SIZE
OF THE SYSTEM, DEPICTING WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SYSTEM DIAMETER IS ESTIMATED AT
200 NM. A 37GHZ 071058Z TRMM IMAGE CAPTURES THE TIGHT CONSOLIDATION
OF THE SYSTEM, SHOWING TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. THE SCATTERING FREQUENCIES ALSO CAPTURE THE INTENSITY AND
DEPTH OF CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, AND DECREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO IMPROVING. RECENT IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE POLEWARD CHANNEL, WHICH WILL
LIKELY BY SHORT-LIVED, THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THE 070000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD EXHAUST OVER THE LLCC, AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOPS REVEAL INCREASING SATURATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING THE STORM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE 28 TO 29 DEGREES. THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS MAKING DVORAK ASSESSMENTS LESS REPRESENTATIVE
OF THE TRUE INTENSITY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON
THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM IMAGE AND A
PGTW DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS. THE STEERING FORCE FOR TS 17W IS
AN ANTICYCLONE EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS PROVIDING A GENTLE NUDGE POLEWARD. A MAJOR
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC THAT WILL
AFFECT THE TRACK OF TS 17W IS TAKING PLACE. A DEEP TROUGH MOVING
OVER HONSHU IS BREAKING DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND AS IT DOES SO, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST RAPIDLY, BUILDING OVER
THE BONIN ISLANDS AND THE RYUKUS. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TS 17W
WILL LEAVE THE INFLUENCE OF THE NER AND GET PICKED UP BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, MAKING A SHARP TURN TO THE WEST. DUE TO THE SMALL
SIZE AND RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TS 17W, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CAUGHT
UP WITH THE SYSTEM YET. THE JTWC FORECAST CALLS FOR INITIAL
INTENSIFICATION AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE ALONG THE
POLEWARD TRACK, AND THEN, IN ANTICIPATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ANNULAR STORM, A STABLE RATE ALONG THE WESTWARD LEG. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 070151Z SEP 11 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 070200 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z,
072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
NNNN
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
JMA - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 061200 - Tropical Storm Noru
WTPQ20 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 1113 NORU (1113)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 41N 151E
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 1113 NORU (1113)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 41N 151E
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST =
JMA - Tropical Cyclone Warning 060600 - Tropical Depression 26
WWJP25 RJTD 060600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 060600.
WARNING VALID 070600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 992 HPA
AT 46N 134E MARITINE TERRITORY MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 143E 42N 142E
47N 152E 55N 162E 43N 175E 39N 175E 39N 160E 37N 143E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 20N 135E NE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 36N 116E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 48N 172E SSE 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 42N 149E TO 42N 155E 40N 159E 38N 163E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1113 NORU (1113) 990 HPA AT 39.4N 150.1E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING AND SUMMARY 060600.
WARNING VALID 070600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 992 HPA
AT 46N 134E MARITINE TERRITORY MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 143E 42N 142E
47N 152E 55N 162E 43N 175E 39N 175E 39N 160E 37N 143E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 20N 135E NE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 36N 116E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 48N 172E SSE 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 42N 149E TO 42N 155E 40N 159E 38N 163E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1113 NORU (1113) 990 HPA AT 39.4N 150.1E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Warning 042200 - Tropical Depression 26
ABPW10 PGTW 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/042200Z-050600ZSEP2011//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041951ZSEP2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 041800Z, TROPICAL STORM 16W (NORU) WAS LOCATED NEAR
32.5N 149.6E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH- EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 042100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.9N 131.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), HOWEVER, THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. LOW LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED
CIRCULATION WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM.
A 041209Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED AND SYMMETRICAL LLCC WITH
20-KNOT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, AND
5-10 KNOTS IN ALL OTHER QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM LIES DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A TROUGH AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW
(5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE. A 041654Z
AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/042200Z-050600ZSEP2011//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041951ZSEP2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 041800Z, TROPICAL STORM 16W (NORU) WAS LOCATED NEAR
32.5N 149.6E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH- EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 042100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.9N 131.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), HOWEVER, THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. LOW LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED
CIRCULATION WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM.
A 041209Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED AND SYMMETRICAL LLCC WITH
20-KNOT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, AND
5-10 KNOTS IN ALL OTHER QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM LIES DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A TROUGH AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW
(5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE. A 041654Z
AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 13 - Tropical Depression Noru
WTPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (NORU) WARNING NR 013
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 16W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 39.4N 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 39.4N 150.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 43.8N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 49.3N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 40.5N 150.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
EAST OF MISAWA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
PROCESS IS WELL UNDERWAY AS TD 16W TRACKS INTO THE HIGHER LATITUDES.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED PRECIPITOUSLY DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS AND ARE NOW BELOW THE MINIMUM VALUES NECESSARY TO SUPPORT A
WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT AMSUB TEMPERATURE PROFILE REVEALS
A COLD ANOMALY HAS FORMED AT 14 KFT AND THAT THE WARM ANOMALY IS
WEAKENING AND SINKING. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN EXTENSIVE
REGION OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE
LLCC IS SEPARATING FROM THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION, WHICH IS
EASTWARD OF THE LLCC. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG TRACK IS MAKING
FOR A SLOW EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TD 14W IS BEING DRIVEN
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND POLEWARD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PART OF A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN PACIFIC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (NORU) WARNING NR 013
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 16W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 39.4N 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 39.4N 150.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 43.8N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 49.3N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 40.5N 150.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
EAST OF MISAWA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
PROCESS IS WELL UNDERWAY AS TD 16W TRACKS INTO THE HIGHER LATITUDES.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED PRECIPITOUSLY DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS AND ARE NOW BELOW THE MINIMUM VALUES NECESSARY TO SUPPORT A
WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT AMSUB TEMPERATURE PROFILE REVEALS
A COLD ANOMALY HAS FORMED AT 14 KFT AND THAT THE WARM ANOMALY IS
WEAKENING AND SINKING. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN EXTENSIVE
REGION OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE
LLCC IS SEPARATING FROM THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION, WHICH IS
EASTWARD OF THE LLCC. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG TRACK IS MAKING
FOR A SLOW EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TD 14W IS BEING DRIVEN
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND POLEWARD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PART OF A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN PACIFIC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
JTWC - Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Cyclone Advisory 12 - Tropical Storm Noru
WDPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (NORU) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT OVER THE LLCC DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 052202Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION, NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC, DISPLACED ABOUT 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE TRMM WIND PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THERE
IS A BELT OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT ERRATIC MOTION ARE BASED
ON THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA AND A SHIP REPORT SHOWING 30-
35 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.
B. TS 16W APPEARS TO BE A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH, PRIMARILY,
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. DESPITE RETAINING A COCOON OF DEEP
MOISTURE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM, TS 16W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A 500 MB UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. TS 16W HAS CONTINUED TO TRANSITION
INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY THE ASCAT IMAGE WHICH
DEPICTS A BROADENING WIND FIELD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK CORE OF
WINDS (15-20 KNOTS) SURROUNDED BY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS, AND BY
THE 05/16Z AND 05/19Z AMSU CROSS-SECTIONS THAT NO LONGER SHOW
A MID-LEVEL WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALY BUT RATHER A COLD ANOMALY
IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. BASED ON RECENT MSI, THIS SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH
A FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL JAPAN. THIS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND TS 16W WILL
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS EVENLY SPLIT ON WHETHER THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD OR GETS ABSORBED INTO THE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN THE TIMING OF TS 16W'S DEMISE OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (NORU) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT OVER THE LLCC DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 052202Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION, NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC, DISPLACED ABOUT 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE TRMM WIND PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THERE
IS A BELT OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT ERRATIC MOTION ARE BASED
ON THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA AND A SHIP REPORT SHOWING 30-
35 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.
B. TS 16W APPEARS TO BE A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH, PRIMARILY,
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. DESPITE RETAINING A COCOON OF DEEP
MOISTURE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM, TS 16W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A 500 MB UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. TS 16W HAS CONTINUED TO TRANSITION
INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY THE ASCAT IMAGE WHICH
DEPICTS A BROADENING WIND FIELD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK CORE OF
WINDS (15-20 KNOTS) SURROUNDED BY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS, AND BY
THE 05/16Z AND 05/19Z AMSU CROSS-SECTIONS THAT NO LONGER SHOW
A MID-LEVEL WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALY BUT RATHER A COLD ANOMALY
IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. BASED ON RECENT MSI, THIS SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH
A FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL JAPAN. THIS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND TS 16W WILL
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS EVENLY SPLIT ON WHETHER THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD OR GETS ABSORBED INTO THE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN THE TIMING OF TS 16W'S DEMISE OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.//
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