ABPW10 PGTW 080130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/080130Z-080600ZSEP2011//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071951ZSEP2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TS 16W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR
32.5N 149.6E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN HAS
DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) AT 071800Z, TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP) WAS LOCATED NEAR
23.8N 135.2E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR
BASE, OKINAWA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 072100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.7N 149.2E, 520
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ANIMATED INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
IMPROVING OUTFLOW OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION. A 07/2212Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATES SOME CURVED INFLOW INTO THE LLCC
WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS
CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW WITH SOME WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOT) WESTERLIES
FLOWING INTO A CLEARLY DEFINED, ELONGATED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES DIRECTLY BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 1.A.(1) AND
ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
Friday, September 9, 2011
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 07 - Tropical Storm Kulap
WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (KULAP) WARNING NR 007
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 17W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 27.2N 131.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2N 131.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.8N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 31.6N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 130.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS INTACT BUT
FULLY EXPOSED AND FURTHER DETACHED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION, NOW BY
OVER 220 NM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
081231Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE EASTERN RIM OF
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 10 DEGREES
SOUTHEAST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF JAPAN.
TD 17W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER
WATER BY TAU 36 AS THE VWS REMAINS STRONG AND ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFDN SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z,
090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (KULAP) WARNING NR 007
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 17W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 27.2N 131.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2N 131.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.8N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 31.6N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 130.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS INTACT BUT
FULLY EXPOSED AND FURTHER DETACHED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION, NOW BY
OVER 220 NM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
081231Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE EASTERN RIM OF
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 10 DEGREES
SOUTHEAST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF JAPAN.
TD 17W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER
WATER BY TAU 36 AS THE VWS REMAINS STRONG AND ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFDN SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z,
090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
Thursday, September 8, 2011
PAGASA - Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO (FINAL) - Tropical Storm "NONOY" (KULAP)
Tropical Storm "NONOY" | |||||||||||||||
Tropical Cyclone Archive | Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping | |||||||||||||||
PAGASA Track as of 2 p.m., 08 September 2011 ) | Satellite Picture at 5 p.m., 08 September 2011 ) | ||||||||||||||
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Tropical Cyclone Archive | Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping | |||||||||||||||
PAGASA - Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE - Tropical Storm "NONOY" (KULAP)
Original source: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml, recovered at: 2011-09-08 0245Z
Tropical Storm "NONOY" | |||||||||||||||
Tropical Cyclone Archive | Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping | |||||||||||||||
PAGASA Track as of 8 a.m., 08 September 2011 ) | Satellite Picture at 10 a.m., 08 September 2011 ) | ||||||||||||||
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Tropical Cyclone Archive | Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping | |||||||||||||||
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 05 - Tropical Storm Kulap
WTPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 25.5N 133.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 133.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 27.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.6N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 29.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 31.4N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 35.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 39.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 133.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KULAP) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 130 NM TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 080115Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING STRONG 30- TO
40- KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED DIRECTLY BENEATH A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, A
080443 AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DRY AIR WRAPPING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. TS 17W IS CURRENLTY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHEN AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW TS
17W TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TS 17W SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITYAND THEN BY TAU 48 BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT IN THE TURN POLEWARD. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS A DEEPER TROUGH TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF, GFS, WBAR, AND JGSM. HOWEVER, TS 17W COULD
POTENTIALLY WEAKEN BELOW 25 KNOTS BEFORE COMPLETING ETT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 25.5N 133.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 133.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 27.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.6N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 29.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 31.4N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 35.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 39.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 133.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KULAP) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 130 NM TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 080115Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING STRONG 30- TO
40- KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED DIRECTLY BENEATH A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, A
080443 AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DRY AIR WRAPPING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. TS 17W IS CURRENLTY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHEN AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW TS
17W TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TS 17W SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITYAND THEN BY TAU 48 BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT IN THE TURN POLEWARD. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS A DEEPER TROUGH TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF, GFS, WBAR, AND JGSM. HOWEVER, TS 17W COULD
POTENTIALLY WEAKEN BELOW 25 KNOTS BEFORE COMPLETING ETT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 03 - Tropical Storm Kulap
WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 23.8N 135.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 135.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.4N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.6N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 29.3N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 32.9N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 36.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 41.6N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 134.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
(IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. IR IMAGERY ALSO
REVEALS SLIGHTLY COOLER CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A
07/1830 TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS
TRMM IMAGE ALSO INDICATES DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM, POTENTIALLY INHIBITING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. A 07/1252Z
PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES TS 17W HAS REMAINED SMALL IN SIZE,
WITH 25-KNOT WIND RADII LESS THAN 120 NM FROM THE CENTER. INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY,
AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH A DECREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE 07/1200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS 17W IS LOCATED BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TS KULAP'S STEERING INFLUENCE HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED FROM THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE
RECENT TURNING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS NEW FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
PRIMARILY BASED ON THE LOWER THAN EXPECTED INITIAL INTENSITY OF 17W
AND THE SUBSEQUENT STEERING REGIME BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHALLOWER
DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM. TS 17W IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD WEAKEN
THE WESTERN EXTENT, ALLOWING TS 17W TO TRACK POLEWARD, RECURVE OVER
THE KOREAN PENINSULA, AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. WITH THE CURRENTLY
EXPOSED LLCC, STEADY INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND
NORTHWARD TRACK INTO A REGION OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 17W WILL STRUGGLE TO APPROACH
TYPHOON STRENGTH. BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96, TS 17W IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT, WITH EGRR, NOGAPS, AND GFDN
KEEPING 17W ON A STRAIGHT-RUNNING TRACK TOWARD THE WEST AND
DISSIPATING IN EASTERN CHINA. GFS, ECMWF, JGSM, AND WBAR
RECURVE 17W ACROSS THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO JGSM, ECMWF, AND GFS, WHICH DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND
082100Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 23.8N 135.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 135.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.4N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.6N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 29.3N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 32.9N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 36.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 41.6N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 134.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
(IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. IR IMAGERY ALSO
REVEALS SLIGHTLY COOLER CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A
07/1830 TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS
TRMM IMAGE ALSO INDICATES DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM, POTENTIALLY INHIBITING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. A 07/1252Z
PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES TS 17W HAS REMAINED SMALL IN SIZE,
WITH 25-KNOT WIND RADII LESS THAN 120 NM FROM THE CENTER. INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY,
AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH A DECREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE 07/1200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS 17W IS LOCATED BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TS KULAP'S STEERING INFLUENCE HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED FROM THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE
RECENT TURNING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS NEW FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
PRIMARILY BASED ON THE LOWER THAN EXPECTED INITIAL INTENSITY OF 17W
AND THE SUBSEQUENT STEERING REGIME BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHALLOWER
DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM. TS 17W IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD WEAKEN
THE WESTERN EXTENT, ALLOWING TS 17W TO TRACK POLEWARD, RECURVE OVER
THE KOREAN PENINSULA, AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. WITH THE CURRENTLY
EXPOSED LLCC, STEADY INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND
NORTHWARD TRACK INTO A REGION OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 17W WILL STRUGGLE TO APPROACH
TYPHOON STRENGTH. BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96, TS 17W IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT, WITH EGRR, NOGAPS, AND GFDN
KEEPING 17W ON A STRAIGHT-RUNNING TRACK TOWARD THE WEST AND
DISSIPATING IN EASTERN CHINA. GFS, ECMWF, JGSM, AND WBAR
RECURVE 17W ACROSS THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO JGSM, ECMWF, AND GFS, WHICH DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND
082100Z.//
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
JMA - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 70300 - Tropical Storm Kulap
WTPQ20 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1114 KULAP (1114) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 21.5N 135.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 080300UTC 23.3N 135.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1114 KULAP (1114) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 21.5N 135.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 080300UTC 23.3N 135.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
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