Monday, September 5, 2011

JTWC - Prognostic Reasoning Tropical Cyclone Advisory 10 - Tropical Storm Noru

WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 051012Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A DIRECT HIT OF THE LLCC
WITH 35 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND AN EXPANSIVE RADIUS OF 30
KNOT WINDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS. A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL ALOFT IS PREVENTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND CAUSING SUBSIDENCE. THE SYSTEM IS
ANALYZED AS SUBTROPICAL BECAUSE OF THE TUTT CELL ALOFT, WIND
STRUCTURE, AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TS 16W IS CURRENTLY A HYBRID SYSTEM AND SHOULD COMPLETE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 24. DUE TO DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE TUTT CELL ALOFT, TS 16W WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY WEAKEN BELOW 25 KNOTS PRIOR TO ETT. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHWARD TRACK.
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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