Sunday, September 4, 2011

JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 39 - Tropical Storm Talas

WTPN32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 039
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 35.7N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 35.7N 134.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 38.8N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 43.9N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 49.5N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 36.5N 134.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTH-
EAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS EXITED INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN AS IT
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
GROSSLY ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECAME EXPOSED TO THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME SHALLOW
AND FRAGMENTED. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON RADAR REFLECTIVITY
LOOP FROM KINKI, JAPAN, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TS 15W IS NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS AND AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
THAT'S DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30-50KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TS TALAS WILL BE RAPIDLY
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION, BECOMING A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 24. THE MAJORITY OF
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TRACK THE VORTEX ALMOST DUE
NORTH IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE SOLID RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z,
041500Z AND 042100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

No comments:

Post a Comment