Friday, September 9, 2011

JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Warning 080130 - Tropical Depression

ABPW10 PGTW 080130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/080130Z-080600ZSEP2011//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071951ZSEP2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TS 16W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR
32.5N 149.6E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN HAS
DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) AT 071800Z, TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP) WAS LOCATED NEAR
23.8N 135.2E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR
BASE, OKINAWA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 072100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.7N 149.2E, 520
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ANIMATED INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
IMPROVING OUTFLOW OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION. A 07/2212Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATES SOME CURVED INFLOW INTO THE LLCC
WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS
CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW WITH SOME WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOT) WESTERLIES
FLOWING INTO A CLEARLY DEFINED, ELONGATED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES DIRECTLY BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 1.A.(1) AND
ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//

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