Sunday, September 4, 2011

JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 03 - Tropical Depression 16W

WTPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 24.1N 151.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 151.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 28.2N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 31.7N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 34.8N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 37.4N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 42.2N 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 47.6N 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 53.4N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 25.1N 151.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM E OF IWO TO,
JAPAN, HAS MAINTAINED A FAST STORM MOTION AND TRACKED NORTH-NORTH-
EASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
FURTHER CONSOLIDATED WITH INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 031608Z 36 HZ AQUA
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE EAST OF A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) AND TO THE WEST OF AN
ANTICYCLONE THAT IS ENHANCING NORTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW, ALBEIT IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE TUTT IS
EXERTING PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND IS SUPPRESSING
OUTFLOW. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS OVER WARM WATER AND MAINTAINS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. AFTER
TAU 36, IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AS AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE.
HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48, A HIGH AMPLITUDE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST WILL BUILD AND STEER THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. AFTER TAU 72, TS 16W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ET) AND WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL.
THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ET BY END OF FORECAST. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 BEFORE IT FANS OUT TO
APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES WITH EGRR TO THE LEFT OF AND JGSM AND WBAR
TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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