Tuesday, September 6, 2011

JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 11 - Tropical Storm Noru

WTPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (NORU) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 36.9N 148.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 36.9N 148.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 40.1N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 44.2N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 48.6N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 37.7N 148.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 051553Z AMSR-E 36 GHZ IMAGE CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 051153Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING
30-35 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND A SHIP REPORT, 260 NM
SOUTHEAST, ALSO INDICATING 35 KNOT WINDS. TS 16W APPEARS TO
BE A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH, PRIMARILY, SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
DESPITE RETAINING A COCOON OF DEEP MOISTURE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM, TS 16W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A 500 MB UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH IS SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
LLCC. TS 16W HAS CONTINUED TO TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY THE ASCAT IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS A BROADENING
WIND FIELD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK CORE OF WINDS (15-20 KNOTS)
SURROUNDED BY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS, AND BY THE 05/16Z AMSU
CROSS-SECTION THAT NO LONGER SHOWS A MID-LEVEL WARM TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY BUT RATHER A COLD ANOMALY IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS. TS
16W IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE, CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER JAPAN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS
21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//

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