Saturday, September 3, 2011

JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 37 - Tropical Storm Talas

WTPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 037
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 34.2N 133.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 34.2N 133.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 36.3N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 39.9N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 44.7N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 34.7N 133.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND RADAR FROM
JAPAN SHOW A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CURRENTLY
TRACKING OVER SHIKOKU. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND
A 03/06Z RADAR FIX FROM JAPAN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
03/06Z OBSERVATIONS FROM RJOP AND RJOT STATIONS NEAR THE CENTER
REPORTING 987 MB. TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD
ACROSS HONSHU ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW TS 15W TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD. TS 15W SHOULD BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AFTER ENTERING THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ) AND FULLY TRANSITION INTO
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS WELL AS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOJ. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A
STRONGER RECURVATURE SCENARIO INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES THAN
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z,
032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W
(SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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