JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 19 - Typhoon Sonca

WTPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (SONCA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 36.0N 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.0N 146.2E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 39.4N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 32 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 42.0N 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 38 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 43.8N 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
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REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 36.9N 147.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
CONVECTION REMAINS SOLID WITH SLIGHT DEFORMATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A SMALL 10-NM IRREGULAR EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES. TY 19W HAS BEGUN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD, BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 36. IT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET KNOWN MODEL TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN DURING ET.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
18W (ROKE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//