JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 07 - Tropical Storm Kulap

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (KULAP) WARNING NR 007
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 17W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 27.2N 131.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2N 131.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.8N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 31.6N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 130.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS INTACT BUT
FULLY EXPOSED AND FURTHER DETACHED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION, NOW BY
OVER 220 NM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
081231Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE EASTERN RIM OF
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 10 DEGREES
SOUTHEAST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF JAPAN.
TD 17W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER
WATER BY TAU 36 AS THE VWS REMAINS STRONG AND ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFDN SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z,
090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//