Saturday, September 3, 2011

JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 01 - Tropical Depression 16W

WTPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020951Z SEP 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 149.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 149.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.3N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 24.0N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 25.7N 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 27.4N 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 30.6N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 33.9N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 37.0N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 149.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH INCREASED DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST ARE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS LIMITING OUTFLOW ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. TD 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES THE STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TD 16W SHOULD STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER
WARM WATER AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS THE SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND DEPICTS UNCERTAINTY AS
THE SYSTEM IS STILL CONSOLIDATING. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A SLOWER
TRACK TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
020951Z SEP 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
021000).//
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