Friday, September 2, 2011

JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Warning 011500 - Tropical Depression 25

ABPW10 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/011500Z-020600ZSEP2011//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011352ZSEP2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 011200Z, TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WAS LOCATED NEAR
28.8N 135.4E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTH OF KYOTO, JAPAN, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 011500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.0N 151.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 520 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT YET DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
NEAR A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011133Z METOP-A
IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
011135Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAK LLCC WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER AND 20-25 KNOT CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS DISPLACED EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
RESULTING FROM OUTFLOW FROM TS 15W AND THE TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. AFTER 36-
48 HOURS VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS TS 15W TRACKS INTO THE EAST
SEA AND OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST 24-36 HOURS. THEREFORE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1).//

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