Sunday, September 4, 2011

JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 40 - Tropical Storm Talas

WTPN32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 040
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 37.0N 134.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 37.0N 134.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 41.1N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 46.5N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 38.0N 135.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST EAST OF NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED AND DISPLACED NORTHEAST-
WARD AS THE SYSTEM BECAME EXPOSED TO VERY STRONG (40-60 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME DISTORTED AND
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. A BROAD AND ELONGATED NOTCH FEATURE ON A
032213Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE COUPLED WITH A REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOP
FROM CHOGOKU WERE USED TO APPROXIMATE THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM RJTD. TD 15W IS NOW EMBEDDED
IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE COLDER WATERS OF THE SEA OF JAPAN.
IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY IN VIEW OF THE HARSH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W
(SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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