Thursday, September 1, 2011

JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 29 - Tropical Storm Talas

Original source: http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtpn32.pgtw..txt, recovered at: 2011-09-01 0915Z

WTPN32 PGTW 010900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 029    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY     ---    WARNING POSITION:    010600Z --- NEAR 28.3N 135.8E      MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 05 KTS      POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM      POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                             060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                             060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                             060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                             230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                             200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                             230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    REPEAT POSIT: 28.3N 135.8E     ---    FORECASTS:    12 HRS, VALID AT:    011800Z --- 29.4N 135.2E    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                             060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                             060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                             060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                             230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                             200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                             230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS     ---    24 HRS, VALID AT:    020600Z --- 31.1N 134.6E    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                             060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                             060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                             060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                             230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                             200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                             210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS     ---    36 HRS, VALID AT:    021800Z --- 33.4N 134.5E    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                             060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                             060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                             060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                             190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                             165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                             150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS     ---    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:    48 HRS, VALID AT:    030600Z --- 36.3N 135.4E    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY    BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                             115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                             110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                             110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS     ---    72 HRS, VALID AT:    040600Z --- 42.6N 139.7E    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY    EXTRATROPICAL     --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 135.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTH OF KYOTO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A LARGE, NEARLY 110 NM DIAMETER, ANNULUS WITH MULTIPLE WEAK CIRCULATIONS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT A CENTROID WITHIN THE CENTER. FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO WRAP BROADLY AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS DEPICTED IN A 010413Z AMSR-E IMAGE. A 010020Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE ANNULUS AND A BELT OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, DISPLACED ABOUT 120-180 NM FROM THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN UNUSUAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST SEA. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TS 15W HAS BEGUN TO TRACK INCREASINGLY POLEWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS (POSITIONED NEAR KYOTO) IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE STR AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS INTO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, PRIMARILY DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH THE GFS, UKMO AND ECMWF MODELS, NONE OF WHICH MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE. GFS LOSES THE CENTER, INDICATES QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AND THEN JUMPS TO ANOTHER SYSTEM BY TAU 120. ECMWF TRACKS THE SYSTEM CYCLONICALLY INTO MANCHURIA, INTO THE JET. UKMO TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW. THE 01/00Z ECMWF, NOT YET INCORPORATED INTO THE CONSENSUS, RETURNS TO A MORE LOGICAL SOLUTION WITH A RE-CURVE TRACK INTO NORTHERN JAPAN. BASED ON THESE PROBLEMS, THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS POSITIONED EAST OF AND FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR 65 KNOTS, AT BEST, AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES JAPAN. 15W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BEFORE TAU 72 DUE TO THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST SEA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//   

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