Thursday, September 8, 2011

JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 05 - Tropical Storm Kulap

WTPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 25.5N 133.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 133.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 27.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.6N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 29.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 31.4N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 35.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 39.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 133.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KULAP) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 130 NM TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 080115Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING STRONG 30- TO
40- KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED DIRECTLY BENEATH A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, A
080443 AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DRY AIR WRAPPING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. TS 17W IS CURRENLTY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHEN AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW TS
17W TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TS 17W SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITYAND THEN BY TAU 48 BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT IN THE TURN POLEWARD. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS A DEEPER TROUGH TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF, GFS, WBAR, AND JGSM. HOWEVER, TS 17W COULD
POTENTIALLY WEAKEN BELOW 25 KNOTS BEFORE COMPLETING ETT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//

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