Tuesday, September 6, 2011

JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 13 - Tropical Depression Noru

WTPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (NORU) WARNING NR 013
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 16W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 39.4N 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 39.4N 150.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 43.8N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 49.3N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 40.5N 150.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
EAST OF MISAWA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
PROCESS IS WELL UNDERWAY AS TD 16W TRACKS INTO THE HIGHER LATITUDES.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED PRECIPITOUSLY DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS AND ARE NOW BELOW THE MINIMUM VALUES NECESSARY TO SUPPORT A
WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT AMSUB TEMPERATURE PROFILE REVEALS
A COLD ANOMALY HAS FORMED AT 14 KFT AND THAT THE WARM ANOMALY IS
WEAKENING AND SINKING. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN EXTENSIVE
REGION OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE
LLCC IS SEPARATING FROM THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION, WHICH IS
EASTWARD OF THE LLCC. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG TRACK IS MAKING
FOR A SLOW EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TD 14W IS BEING DRIVEN
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND POLEWARD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PART OF A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN PACIFIC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//

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