Wednesday, September 7, 2011

JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Advisory 01 - Tropical Storm Kulap

WTPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KULAP) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 21.8N 135.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 135.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 22.8N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.8N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.5N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 25.2N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 26.5N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.2N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 27.4N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 135.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
A SMALL, DENSE, AND TIGHTLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM UNDERGOING RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. A 062356Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE VERIFIES THE SMALL SIZE
OF THE SYSTEM, DEPICTING WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SYSTEM DIAMETER IS ESTIMATED AT
200 NM. A 37GHZ 071058Z TRMM IMAGE CAPTURES THE TIGHT CONSOLIDATION
OF THE SYSTEM, SHOWING TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. THE SCATTERING FREQUENCIES ALSO CAPTURE THE INTENSITY AND
DEPTH OF CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, AND DECREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO IMPROVING. RECENT IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE POLEWARD CHANNEL, WHICH WILL
LIKELY BY SHORT-LIVED, THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THE 070000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD EXHAUST OVER THE LLCC, AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOPS REVEAL INCREASING SATURATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING THE STORM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE 28 TO 29 DEGREES. THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS MAKING DVORAK ASSESSMENTS LESS REPRESENTATIVE
OF THE TRUE INTENSITY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON
THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM IMAGE AND A
PGTW DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS. THE STEERING FORCE FOR TS 17W IS
AN ANTICYCLONE EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS PROVIDING A GENTLE NUDGE POLEWARD. A MAJOR
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC THAT WILL
AFFECT THE TRACK OF TS 17W IS TAKING PLACE. A DEEP TROUGH MOVING
OVER HONSHU IS BREAKING DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND AS IT DOES SO, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST RAPIDLY, BUILDING OVER
THE BONIN ISLANDS AND THE RYUKUS. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TS 17W
WILL LEAVE THE INFLUENCE OF THE NER AND GET PICKED UP BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, MAKING A SHARP TURN TO THE WEST. DUE TO THE SMALL
SIZE AND RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TS 17W, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CAUGHT
UP WITH THE SYSTEM YET. THE JTWC FORECAST CALLS FOR INITIAL
INTENSIFICATION AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE ALONG THE
POLEWARD TRACK, AND THEN, IN ANTICIPATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ANNULAR STORM, A STABLE RATE ALONG THE WESTWARD LEG. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 070151Z SEP 11 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 070200 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z,
072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
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